BTC/USD 4H Chart

🔎 Market Structure (4H)

Medium-term trend: still up, but clearly weakening

Price has broken out of the local uptrend channel (black line broken)

Currently, we have a downward impulse + attempted demand reaction

This looks like a distribution → SL breakout → seeking demand lower

🧱 Key Levels (from your chart)
🟢 Resistance (now selling)

89,255 – first local resistance (now S/R flip)

91,857 – strong resistance, previous consolidation

93,713 – supply zone / last LH

94,700–95,000 – very strong resistance (high range)

👉 Until we return and close the 4H period above 91.8k, longs are counter-trend

🔴 Support (most important)

87,621 – currently being tested / very important

84,216 – key HTF support (must-hold for bulls)

81,308

77,820 – deep range low

📉 Momentum & price action

Last candle: strong decline + long lower wick

= demand reaction, but no confirmation

No 4H HH/HL structure yet

This looks like a dead cat bounce or a retest of the breakout

📊 Stoch RSI

Was heavily oversold

Now a sharp upward move
⚠️ But:

In downtrends, the Stoch RSI often gives false long signals

Price confirmation is needed, not just an oscillator

🧠 Scenarios (specific)
🟡 Scenario 1 – Base case (most likely)

Pullback → further decline

Bounce to 89.2k – 90k

Rejection

Down to 84.2k

Market decision there

👉 This is a textbook retest of a broken structure

🟢 Scenario 2 – Bullish (less likely, but possible)

Conditions:

4-Hour Close > 91,857

Then a retest of the high-low

Then targets:

93.7k

94.7–95k

Only above 95k does the full uptrend resume

🔴 Scenario 3 – Bearish (if demand breaks)

If:

4-Hour Close < 87.6k

Then:

A quick move to 84.2k

Breakout = 81.3k

Extreme: 77.8k