EURUSD – بازگشتی به هم‌گرایی بازه‌های زمانی بالاتر؛ ایده SHORT

EURUSD remains in a bearish market structure, with both the Daily and H4 charts trading below their respective 200 EMA, keeping the higher-timeframe bias to the downside.

Rather than chasing price at current levels, my plan is to wait for a retracement into a high-confluence resistance area before looking for short opportunities.

The area of interest is formed by the overlap of:

Daily Supply
H4 Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Descending Daily Trendline

This combination creates a premium zone where sellers may regain control. However, I am not planning to sell blindly from the zone. I will only consider a short position if price produces clear bearish confirmation within this confluence area, such as rejection, a bearish engulfing candle, or a market structure shift on the lower timeframe.

If sellers step back in, my downside objectives are:

TP1: H4 Demand Zone 1 (orange)
TP2: H4 Demand Zone 2 (green)

The reason for waiting is simple: although the higher-timeframe trend remains bearish, price is currently trading close to H4 support. Selling after an extended decline offers a poorer risk-to-reward profile than allowing the price to retrace into higher-probability supply.

A decisive Daily close above the confluence zone (Daily Supply + H4 FVG + Daily Trendline) would weaken this bearish outlook and invalidate the setup.

Summary
Trend: Bearish (Daily & H4 below the 200 EMA)
Strategy: Sell the retracement, not the current price
Entry: Only after bearish confirmation inside the confluence zone
TP1: H4 Demand Zone 1
TP2: H4 Demand Zone 2
Invalidation: Strong Daily close above the confluence zone

I have a price alert set at the confluence zone. Once triggered, I'll monitor price action closely and only enter if bearish confirmation develops. No confirmation, no trade.